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7/26/17

TMAC Resources (TMR.to): The IKN First Law of Mining News Releases strikes again

On July 14th, we wondered out out in this post just why TMAC Resources (TMR.to) had dropped just a modest 6% or so on the back of obviously bad news from its operation (aka Monty Python's Flying Metallurgy) and invoked the First Law of Mining NRs as evidence:
 "The IKN First Law of Mining News Releases: Considering that anything contained in a mining news release is presented in the best possible way for the company in question, any piece of information contained in a NR that comes across in any way negative means the real news and/or events behind it must be very, very bad indeed."

And since then?

 
And GDX is up 5% since July 14th, too.

Moral: Don't mess with the fundamental laws of nature.

Mailbag on FOMC

Reader 'CM' sums up the FOMC in twelve words and one photo:



The last six Fed meetings in one picture
Different shape, same content.




Nicely done, CM.

Three juniors moving up, one midcap moving down

Novo (NVO) is going wappy:



Trilogy (TMQ) is trading like that road is already built:

Constantine (CEM) has broken out:

But Asanko (AKG) is hitting new lows, even lower than the bottom of the Muddy Waters day:


Copper pushes higher

Copper contracts were trading at over U$2.90/lb earlier today.



That's the highest price since early 2015.

7/25/17

Cordoba Minerals (CDB.v) hole ACD-063

Here's the NR and here's the funny jokey bit about hole ACD-063

"0.5 metres @ 5.97 g/t gold, 0.24% copper (from 67.2 metres)
 with visible gold in the preserved half-core."



Well, you know what they say...



Sigh.

Copper breaks out. Probably.

Chart of the day is copper, of course. Here's the weekly version, your author adds the thin red line.


It's broken out from the U$6,000 metric tonnes (U$2.72 and bits) level but we still haven't got a definitive new high on our hands. The big question is whether this approx 10c move sticks, not whether it goes any higher. Glad I wrote this on Sunday in IKN427, too:

Over at the copper pit things were buoyant and gave solid fundy reasons for the stocks’ rally. This daily chart shows that we’re back at the top of the recent trading range, so it’s natural that thoughts would turn to whether a breakout is in the cards. Personally I think there’s a reasonable chance of that, what with the world finally cottoning on to the fact that the whole Trump economic policy is about weakening the dollar in order to promote growth (and close that trade deficit he’s so obsessed about). This is, by the way, the main reason we’re seeing record after record hit on the US broad markets…cheaper future dollars mean higher equity prices in dollar terms.

However, other copper anal ysts aren’t quite as bullish as your author, according to a report (decent stuff for a mainstream medium) from Chile’s La Tercera this weekend (11), which did the rounds of houses to get the collected thoughts of copper market analysts on where the metal is going next. No need to delve into the Spanish language report, your author does the legwork and reduces it to the need-to-know bullet points:

  • Caroline Bain of Capital Economics: Copper to end 2017 at U$2.36/lb
  • Francisca Pérez of BCI Estudios: Copper to fluctuate between U$2.40/lb and U$2.70/lb to December, then U$2.80/lb in 2018
  • Goldman Sachs: Copper to reach U$2.812/lb “in near term”.
  • Andrew Cole of Metals Bulletin Research: Copper comfortably above U$2.72 in 2018
  • Bloomberg average of anal yst forecasts: U$2.60/lb in 2017, U$2.62 for 2018, U$2.76 in 2019, U$3.00 in 2020.


Experts, eh...

Educating Peru

It's Independence week in Peru, what with the country celebrating its Independence Day on July 28th as it has done for close on 200 years (then the winter break vacation kicks in), so Peru's Ministry of Education...repeat, MINISTRY OF EDUCATION...decided to do something patriotic on its website and put this up yesterday: 


That translates roughly as, "From this moment Peru is free and independent, by the general will of its peoples and for the justice of its cause that God defends. Long live the Fatherland, long live freedom, long live independence!". Those were the words spoken the day Peru became independent and every schoolkid in the land knows them by heart, your actual "We The People..." thing (or perhaps "of/by/for the people" Gettysburg is a closer fit). 

Therefore, Peru was shocked by its Ministry of Education and today, in its place this appeared...


...which is basically a long-winded and humble apology. That's because Simon Bolivar didn't speak those words above, nor did he declare Peru's independence, it was José de San Martín. For context, this leaves Dan Quayle's potatoe in the dust, you need to imagine the reaction if Donald Trump announced that George Washington was assassinated while watching a play in a theatre. Read Peru's daily paper "La Republica" on the scandal and fallout right here (Twitter having  field day in Lima, of course).

Anyway, happy Birthday for Friday, Peru. Enjoy your President's speech and the nice parade.

7/24/17

The demolition of the Argentine Peso continues

Longer-term watchers of Latin America know what this means:


The Argentine Peso came under heavy selling pressure today, it touched 17.66 until just before the end of the day when the government, via the Buenos Aires Province bank, intervened and dumped dollars onto the market to stop the rot. It closed 17.43 after the late flurry, but there's a real finger-in-the-dyke feel about this, the government is getting desperate to cover over the systemic weaknesses that the market knows all about.

The ironic thing about Argentina in the last ten years; When Cristina is President, the rest of the world begs for the country to implode. It doesn't. Now with Macri President, the rest of the world is wishing it the best of fortune. And it goes down the tubes.

Imperial Metals (III.to) refinancing news

Word reaches IKN Nerve Centre today that a bunch of South Korean and Chinese miners and financiers have had a pleasant weekend at Imperial Metals (III.to) Red Chris mine. Lots to see and lots to talk about.

Votorantim going public (from IKN427)

A snippet from yesterday's edition of The IKN Weekly, IKN427:



Votorantim moves to IPO
Coming soon, a big LatAm based mining IPO. Reports first appeared in April (25) about Brazil’s privately controlled (by the Ermirio de Moraes family) Votorantim Metais (26) plans to float and become a public company, now news from local press (27) last week stated with more confidence that, the country’s big base metals/iron ore producer that also owns the majority stake in Peru’s Milpo, is in advanced discussions for an international IPO with target listings in the NYSE and the Toronto TSX. The New York listing procedure is being led by JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley and Credit Suisse, with the Toronto IPO end being covered by BMO. Though details are still sketchy as they tend to be before the prospectus gets published, the reports talk of the company looking to get market by the end of this year and to raise around U$750m in the share allocation. This would move up its market cap to around U$4Bn and make a new major miner available to Northern investment cash. Those kind of ratio figures clearly show that the Ermirio de Moraes family intend to keep tight executive control of the company after the IPO is done.

7/23/17

The IKN Weekly, out now



Look I'm not the biggest car fan in the world by any means, while you go gaga for a Ferrari or Maserati I'm happier taking a taxi to visit an art gallery. But there are exceptions to my four wheel indifference and there was no way this post could go by without a photo of the Shelby Cobra 427 on it, the sexiest car ever built. Right colour and the white hood stripe too. I mean, just look at that beast.

Anyway, IKN427 has just been sent to subscribers and as for the main featured stocks this week...


...I just know that something good is going to happen.

7/22/17

The top three most visited IKN posts this week are...

...in reverse order:

Third Place: "thinking zinc". IKN is not the only place thinking zinc. We knew that.

Second Place: "Regarding discount rates and junior promo bullshit". I enjoyed reading the feedback on this post, too. Thanks to all who took the time, both before and after the update post.
 
First Place: "Hey Jordan Roy-Byrne". Hey Jordan! You're popular!